Post by account_disabled on Feb 22, 2024 3:19:21 GMT -5
Weather and climate are topics of great interest because they influence many socioeconomic activities and influence our well-being. However, most of us have no idea what weather and climate forecasts are based on. Of course, if we were to ask on the street, most respondents would answer that weather forecasts are based on statistics. There we will have our first belief that must be refuted. Since atmospheric processes follow the principles of physics, predictions are actually made by solving equations. In this case, statistics are used to evaluate the validity of predictions because using past statistics we can check the quality of the predictions made at that time. Weather forecasting is performed by simulating the evolution over time of variables in an atmospheric model that describe the state of this dynamic system based on known initial conditions. One of the crux of the matter lies in the word "dynamic.
Logically, since it is an atmosphere, we are talking about a system that is constantly changing (and therefore dynamic), and these changes are what make Switzerland Mobile Number List the problem at hand difficult. In order to perform such simulations, a set of equations expressing the principles of kinetics and thermodynamics must be solved. "Oh okay! Then it's about solving the system of equations," our street interviewees will now say.
The problem is, it's not just any system, it's a complex system of differential equations (yes, equations and derivatives at the same time) whose unknowns are the wind, temperature, pressure, and humidity of the air. The two major advantages are that its analysis only requires knowing the values of these variables in the entire atmosphere at the initial moment, and the result obtained is its future evolution, which is the weather prediction we want.
However, let us not declare victory prematurely, there are many disadvantages: First, the solution of this very difficult system of equations can only be done by approximation (in this case we will not discuss the specific procedure used). Therefore, some physical processes affecting the forecast variables (cloud formation, radiative heating of air and surfaces, turbulence, etc.) cannot be considered a priori and require additional parallel computations. Finally, any flaws in the initial values considered will propagate in subsequent calculations, causing predictions to drift further away from the true evolution of the meteorology.
Logically, since it is an atmosphere, we are talking about a system that is constantly changing (and therefore dynamic), and these changes are what make Switzerland Mobile Number List the problem at hand difficult. In order to perform such simulations, a set of equations expressing the principles of kinetics and thermodynamics must be solved. "Oh okay! Then it's about solving the system of equations," our street interviewees will now say.
The problem is, it's not just any system, it's a complex system of differential equations (yes, equations and derivatives at the same time) whose unknowns are the wind, temperature, pressure, and humidity of the air. The two major advantages are that its analysis only requires knowing the values of these variables in the entire atmosphere at the initial moment, and the result obtained is its future evolution, which is the weather prediction we want.
However, let us not declare victory prematurely, there are many disadvantages: First, the solution of this very difficult system of equations can only be done by approximation (in this case we will not discuss the specific procedure used). Therefore, some physical processes affecting the forecast variables (cloud formation, radiative heating of air and surfaces, turbulence, etc.) cannot be considered a priori and require additional parallel computations. Finally, any flaws in the initial values considered will propagate in subsequent calculations, causing predictions to drift further away from the true evolution of the meteorology.